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  • Forecast
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United States / Florida / Bay Alligator Creek

Bite forecast: Bay Alligator Creek

  • 12 acres
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Best fishing days for the next week

  1. ThursdaySeptember 3weather-based forecast
    31/100medium activity

    Partly cloudy: 75–86 °F

Bay Alligator Creek (Florida) — a popular fishing spot. About 5 ha in area. Nearby towns: Fort Myers and Cape Coral. This is a sea water — its bite forecast is a marine one, computed apart from rivers and lakes. See when the bite is best: hourly fish activity for the days ahead, computed from the weather, pressure, and season.

SaturdaySeptember 5weather-based forecast
30/100medium activity

Cloudy: 77–88 °F

  • WednesdaySeptember 9weather-based forecast
    30/100medium activity

    Cloudy: 73–88 °F

  • Nearby towns

    • Fort Myers3 mi
    • Cape Coral4 mi

    Nearby rivers

    • Yellow Fever Creek4 mi

    Nearby water bodies

    • LakeCat Cay Lake0.7 mi
    • LakeManitoba Lake2 mi
    • LakeKillarney Lake3 mi
    • LakeApache Lake3 mi
    • LakeShamrock Lake3 mi
    • LakeSeminole Lake3 mi
    • LakeCherokee Lake3 mi
    • LakeSaratoga Lake3 mi
    • LakeSan Carlos Basin4 mi
    • LakeLake Spinnaker4 mi
    Loading map…

    Bite calendar

    Thursday, September 3

    Aug 31 – Sep 6
    Mon
    Tue
    Wed
    Thu
    Fri
    Sat
    Sun
    Bite activity:highmediumlowslow
    Based on:weatherseasonal
    What is a bite calendar?
    Red drumBlack drumStriped bassCobiaFlounderRed snapperSheepsheadBluefishKing mackerelMahi-mahiSnookSpanish mackerelSpotted seatroutTarpon

    Black drum

    7/10 · Good

    Hourly activity

    0:006:0012:0018:0023:00
    Bite activity:highmediumlow

    The bite is moderate — fish feed in short bursts. Weather is steady, with no sharp swings — fish behave predictably.

    Peak bite hours

    Best time — 00:00–04:00 (nighttime activity).

    Tactics

    Look for structure — reefs, flats, channel edges; work them slowly near the bottom.

    Lures

    The water's turning murky — go with bright, noisy lures: soft-plastic jig or live bait.

    Gear

    It's a hot day — a hat, sunglasses, and plenty of water are a must. Rain is expected — don't forget a rain jacket or a waterproof shell.

    Summary

    An average day — best chances during peak windows.

    How this forecast is calculated

    Why this forecast

    The computed water temperature is around 80 °F — warmer than the 61–79 °F comfort range for Black drum: in the heat it drops deeper and feeds less often.

    Computed water temperature by month; the green band is the 61–79 °F comfort rangecomfort 61–79 °F80 °F
    JFMAMJJASOND

    Black drum feeds at night: the peak falls in the dark hours, between sunset and sunrise.

    The day: daylight hours and when Black drum feeds0:0012:0024:00

    Pressure is dropping 0.03 inHg over the day — fish are usually more active ahead of a weather change.

    Pressure through the day, 0.03 inHg change
    00:00 · 30.0223:00 · 29.98 inHg

    One more input — the moon's feeding windows: within their hours the score sits higher than across the rest of the day. The window times are in the “Solunar feeding periods” card below.

    Feeding windows on the day scale0:0012:0024:00

    September is an active season for Black drum here.

    JFMAMJJASOND

    These are the same values the bite curve above was computed from. How the forecast works

    Tides

    • High water03:400.8 ft
    • Low water11:50-1.8 ft
    • High water18:560.0 ft
    0:006:0012:0018:0023:000:006:0012:0018:0023:00
    Sea level height by hour
    00:0001:0002:0003:0004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:0020:0021:0022:0023:00
    -0.4 ft0.0 ft0.5 ft0.7 ft0.8 ft0.6 ft0.4 ft-0.0 ft-0.6 ft-1.1 ft-1.4 ft-1.7 ft-1.8 ft-1.6 ft-1.2 ft-0.8 ft-0.5 ft-0.2 ft-0.1 ft0.0 ft-0.1 ft-0.3 ft-0.4 ft-0.4 ft

    Open-Meteo tide model, grid point 11.2 mi away

    Water

    Water temp.
    88 °F
    In the model
    80 °F
    Wave
    0.5 ft
    Period
    3 s

    Open-Meteo Marine model, grid cell 11.2 mi from the waterbody. Values are daily means.

    3 SepThursday, September 3
    +84°

    Partly cloudy · feels like +95°

    Low / high
    +76°…+86°
    Precipitation
    0.00 in
    Wind
    7 mph ENE
    Cloud cover
    63%
    Humidity
    82%
    Pressure
    30.01 inHg
    00:00+77°—4 mpheast wind, 4 mph91%100%
    01:00+77°—3 mpheast wind, 3 mph92%94%
    02:00+77°—4 mphnortheast wind, 4 mph93%100%
    03:00+77°—4 mphnortheast wind, 4 mph94%85%
    04:00+76°—3 mphnorth wind, 3 mph95%100%
    05:00+76°—4 mphnortheast wind, 4 mph95%100%
    06:00+76°—4 mphnortheast wind, 4 mph95%66%
    07:00+76°—3 mphnortheast wind, 3 mph95%21%
    08:00+77°—6 mphnortheast wind, 6 mph95%12%
    09:00+78°—7 mphnortheast wind, 7 mph92%56%
    10:00+80°—8 mphnortheast wind, 8 mph90%34%
    11:00+82°—7 mpheast wind, 7 mph85%64%
    12:00+84°—7 mpheast wind, 7 mph82%63%
    13:00+85°—7 mpheast wind, 7 mph77%65%
    14:00+86°—7 mpheast wind, 7 mph73%15%
    15:00+86°—7 mpheast wind, 7 mph73%77%
    16:00+86°—6 mpheast wind, 6 mph72%66%
    17:00+86°—6 mpheast wind, 6 mph75%67%
    18:00+83°—7 mphsoutheast wind, 7 mph82%100%
    19:00+81°0.02 in4 mphnortheast wind, 4 mph87%100%
    20:00+78°—6 mphnortheast wind, 6 mph89%100%
    21:00+78°—6 mpheast wind, 6 mph92%100%
    22:00+77°—5 mpheast wind, 5 mph92%100%
    23:00+77°—5 mpheast wind, 5 mph92%92%
    +86°+81°+76°
    Weather throughout the day
    0:006:0012:0018:0023:00

    Sun and moon

    Thursday, September 3
    The day: daylight and the hours the moon is above the horizon. Local time0:0012:0024:00
    DaylightMoon above the horizon
    Sunrise
    07:12
    Sunset
    19:54
    Day length
    12 h 42 min
    Sunshine hours
    7 h 8 min
    UV index
    6
    high
    Moon
    Last quarter
    Moonrise
    —
    Moonset
    13:34

    The day is 2 min shorter than yesterday.

    Sunshine hours count direct sun only — cloud cover cuts it, so it is shorter than daylight.

    Solunar feeding periods

    +14% in the windowThursday, September 3
    Feeding windows on the day scale, local time0:0012:0024:00
    Major periodsMinor periods
    • Major05:20–07:20Moon overhead
    • Minor13:04–14:04Moonset
    • Major17:50–19:50Moon underfoot

    The windows are set by the moon's transit and rise, and the forecast above already accounts for them: within these hours the bite score sits higher than across the rest of the day, while the day's overall level still comes from the catch-calibrated model.

    What are solunar periods?